From 5b094cb9378a8d2057848f3573154312705951ca Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2021 16:10:11 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 1/7] pca-based rookies and linear progs from real data

---
 .../core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts   | 227 +++---------------
 .../core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts      | 171 +++++++------
 2 files changed, 129 insertions(+), 269 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index 94b7281dd9..2f872c29d6 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -5,198 +5,36 @@ import type {
 	RatingKey,
 } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 
-type RatingFormula = {
-	ageModifier: (age: number) => number;
-	changeLimits: (age: number) => [number, number];
-};
-
-const shootingFormula: RatingFormula = {
-	ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-		// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
-		if (age <= 27) {
-			return 0;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 29) {
-			return 0.5;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 31) {
-			return 1.5;
-		}
-
-		return 2;
-	},
-	changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
-};
-const iqFormula: RatingFormula = {
-	ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-		if (age <= 21) {
-			return 4;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 23) {
-			return 3;
-		}
-
-		// Reverse most of the age-related decline in calcBaseChange
-		if (age <= 27) {
-			return 0;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 29) {
-			return 0.5;
-		}
-
-		if (age <= 31) {
-			return 1.5;
-		}
-
-		return 2;
-	},
-	changeLimits: age => {
-		if (age >= 24) {
-			return [-3, 9];
-		}
-
-		// For 19: [-3, 32]
-		// For 23: [-3, 12]
-		return [-3, 7 + 5 * (24 - age)];
-	},
-};
-const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, RatingFormula> = {
-	stre: {
-		ageModifier: () => 0,
-		changeLimits: () => [-Infinity, Infinity],
-	},
-	spd: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			if (age <= 27) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 30) {
-				return -2;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 35) {
-				return -3;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 40) {
-				return -4;
-			}
-
-			return -8;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
-	},
-	jmp: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			if (age <= 26) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 30) {
-				return -3;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 35) {
-				return -4;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 40) {
-				return -5;
-			}
-
-			return -10;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-12, 2],
-	},
-	endu: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			if (age <= 23) {
-				return random.uniform(0, 9);
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 30) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 35) {
-				return -2;
-			}
-
-			if (age <= 40) {
-				return -4;
-			}
-
-			return -8;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-11, 19],
-	},
-	dnk: {
-		ageModifier: (age: number) => {
-			// Like shootingForumla, except for old players
-			if (age <= 27) {
-				return 0;
-			}
-
-			return 0.5;
-		},
-		changeLimits: () => [-3, 13],
-	},
-	ins: shootingFormula,
-	ft: shootingFormula,
-	fg: shootingFormula,
-	tp: shootingFormula,
-	oiq: iqFormula,
-	diq: iqFormula,
-	drb: {
-		ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
-		changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
-	},
-	pss: {
-		ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
-		changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
-	},
-	reb: {
-		ageModifier: shootingFormula.ageModifier,
-		changeLimits: () => [-2, 5],
-	},
+// (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
+const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
+	diq: [0.06, -1.098, 0.0, -0.011],
+	dnk: [0.029, -0.923, -0.008, 0.342],
+	drb: [0.064, -1.472, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.464, 12.505, 0.04, -0.873],
+	fg: [-0.005, 0.362, -0.004, 0.583],
+	ft: [0.025, -0.217, 0.003, 0.533],
+	ins: [0.016, -0.652, -0.034, 1.956],
+	jmp: [-0.166, 3.191, 0.074, -1.511],
+	oiq: [-0.042, 1.451, -0.0, 0.014],
+	pss: [0.04, -0.81, -0.001, 0.064],
+	reb: [0.045, -1.114, -0.0, 0.004],
+	spd: [-0.111, 2.399, 0.047, -0.983],
+	stre: [-0.039, 1.018, 0.001, -0.013],
+	tp: [0.095, -2.109, -0.009, 1.092],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	if (age <= 21) {
-		val = 2;
-	} else if (age <= 25) {
-		val = 1;
-	} else if (age <= 27) {
-		val = 0;
-	} else if (age <= 29) {
-		val = -1;
-	} else if (age <= 31) {
-		val = -2;
-	} else if (age <= 34) {
-		val = -3;
-	} else if (age <= 40) {
-		val = -4;
-	} else if (age <= 43) {
-		val = -5;
-	} else {
-		val = -6;
-	}
+	const base_coef = [-0.174, 4.475, -0.001, 3.455];
 
-	// Noise
-	if (age <= 23) {
-		val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 20);
-	} else if (age <= 25) {
-		val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 5), -4, 10);
-	} else {
-		val += helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 3), -2, 4);
-	}
+	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
+	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
+	val += helpers.bound(
+		random.realGauss(0, 0.05 + Math.max(0, std_base)),
+		-5,
+		15,
+	);
 
 	// Modulate by coaching. g.get("numActiveTeams") doesn't exist when upgrading DB, but that doesn't matter
 	if (g.hasOwnProperty("numActiveTeams")) {
@@ -230,20 +68,21 @@ const developSeason = (
 			ratings.hgt += 1;
 		}
 	}
+	const age_bounds = helpers.bound(age, 19, 50);
 
-	const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age, coachingRank);
+	const baseChange = calcBaseChange(age_bounds, coachingRank);
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(ratingsFormulas)) {
-		const ageModifier = ratingsFormulas[key].ageModifier(age);
-		const changeLimits = ratingsFormulas[key].changeLimits(age);
+		const ageModifier =
+			ratingsFormulas[key][0] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][1];
+		const ageStd =
+			ratingsFormulas[key][2] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][3];
 
 		ratings[key] = limitRating(
 			ratings[key] +
-				helpers.bound(
-					(baseChange + ageModifier) * random.uniform(0.4, 1.4),
-					changeLimits[0],
-					changeLimits[1],
-				),
+				baseChange +
+				ageModifier +
+				helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 0.05 + Math.max(0, ageStd)), -5, 5),
 		);
 	}
 };
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index e6fa9ac499..a614e9ef4f 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -66,87 +66,108 @@ const genRatings = (
 	const hgt = heightToRating(wingspanAdjust);
 	heightInInches = Math.round(heightInInches); // Pick type of player (point, wing, or big) based on height
 
-	const randType = Math.random();
-	let type: keyof typeof typeFactors;
+	const pca_comp = [
+		[
+			-0.03352406, 0.12346389, -0.35794756, -0.15434998, -0.3113007, -0.2962055,
+			0.34777623, 0.12785922, -0.3111465, -0.11403359, -0.36446682, 0.13955043,
+			-0.30497047, 0.06144027, -0.38837135,
+		],
+		[
+			0.28366816, 0.30712998, 0.17298037, 0.23822004, 0.03453123, -0.02717308,
+			0.16869372, 0.47707278, 0.09103202, 0.21353549, 0.23247957, 0.39476818,
+			0.05918039, 0.45708638, -0.06589692,
+		],
+		[
+			-0.17455344, 0.3758997, -0.30602956, 0.0244445, 0.30912668, 0.26491034,
+			0.26718402, 0.00262062, 0.2510174, 0.03160773, -0.51004165, -0.13338444,
+			0.1938457, 0.17691812, 0.29330686,
+		],
+	];
 
-	if (hgt >= 59) {
-		// 6'10" or taller
-		if (randType < 0.01) {
-			type = "point";
-		} else if (randType < 0.05) {
-			type = "wing";
-		} else {
-			type = "big";
-		}
-	} else if (hgt <= 33) {
-		// 6'3" or shorter
-		if (randType < 0.1) {
-			type = "wing";
-		} else {
-			type = "point";
-		}
-	} else {
-		// eslint-disable-next-line no-lonely-if
-		if (randType < 0.03) {
-			type = "point";
-		} else if (randType < 0.3) {
-			type = "big";
-		} else {
-			type = "wing";
-		}
-	}
+	const pca1 = 1.64 * hgt - 79.1 + random.realGauss(0, 10);
+	const pca2 = 0.42 * hgt - 20.12 + random.realGauss(0, 10);
+	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 13.78 + random.realGauss(0, 10);
 
-	// Tall players are less talented, and all tend towards dumb and can't shoot because they are rookies
 	const rawRatings = {
-		stre: 37,
-		spd: 40,
-		jmp: 40,
-		endu: 17,
-		ins: 27,
-		dnk: 27,
-		ft: 32,
-		fg: 32,
-		tp: 32,
-		oiq: 22,
-		diq: 22,
-		drb: 37,
-		pss: 37,
-		reb: 37,
+		diq:
+			41.5 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][0] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][0] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][0],
+		dnk:
+			46.8 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][1] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][1] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][1],
+		drb:
+			59.2 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][2] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
+		endu:
+			35.3 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
+		fg:
+			42.9 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][4] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
+		ft:
+			43.0 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
+		hgt:
+			48.1 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][6] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][6] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][6],
+		ins:
+			40.8 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][7] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][7] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][7],
+		jmp:
+			50.7 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][8] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
+		oiq:
+			40.8 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
+		pss:
+			46.1 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][10] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][10] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][10],
+		reb:
+			48.3 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][11] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][11] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][11],
+		spd:
+			51.2 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][12] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][12] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][12],
+		stre:
+			46.9 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][13] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][13] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][13],
+		tp:
+			44.3 +
+			pca1 * pca_comp[0][14] +
+			pca2 * pca_comp[1][14] +
+			pca3 * pca_comp[2][14],
 	};
 
-	// For correlation across ratings, to ensure some awesome players, but athleticism and skill are independent to
-	// ensure there are some who are elite in one but not the other
-	const factorAthleticism = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const factorShooting = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const factorSkill = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const factorIns = helpers.bound(random.realGauss(1, 0.2), 0.2, 1.2);
-	const athleticismRatings = ["stre", "spd", "jmp", "endu", "dnk"];
-	const shootingRatings = ["ft", "fg", "tp"];
-	const skillRatings = ["oiq", "diq", "drb", "pss", "reb"]; // ins purposely left out
-
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		const typeFactor = typeFactors[type].hasOwnProperty(key)
-			? typeFactors[type][key]
-			: 1;
-		let factor = factorIns;
-
-		if (athleticismRatings.includes(key)) {
-			factor = factorAthleticism;
-		} else if (shootingRatings.includes(key)) {
-			factor = factorShooting;
-		} else if (skillRatings.includes(key)) {
-			factor = factorSkill;
-		}
-
-		// For TypeScript
-		// https://github.com/microsoft/TypeScript/issues/21732
-		if (typeFactor === undefined) {
-			throw new Error("Should never happen");
-		}
-
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(
-			factor * typeFactor * random.realGauss(rawRatings[key], 3),
-		);
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.5, 1.2));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {

From 76f0d4a47d69cd55057546935a708fec0b1301c5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2021 12:20:09 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 2/7] log-space models so everything is a multiplier, and
 fine-tuned coefficients

---
 .../core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts   | 54 ++++++++++---------
 .../core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts      |  6 +--
 2 files changed, 32 insertions(+), 28 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index 2f872c29d6..2946337f8a 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -7,36 +7,36 @@ import type {
 
 // (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
 const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
-	diq: [0.06, -1.098, 0.0, -0.011],
-	dnk: [0.029, -0.923, -0.008, 0.342],
-	drb: [0.064, -1.472, 0.0, 0.0],
-	endu: [-0.464, 12.505, 0.04, -0.873],
-	fg: [-0.005, 0.362, -0.004, 0.583],
-	ft: [0.025, -0.217, 0.003, 0.533],
-	ins: [0.016, -0.652, -0.034, 1.956],
-	jmp: [-0.166, 3.191, 0.074, -1.511],
-	oiq: [-0.042, 1.451, -0.0, 0.014],
-	pss: [0.04, -0.81, -0.001, 0.064],
-	reb: [0.045, -1.114, -0.0, 0.004],
-	spd: [-0.111, 2.399, 0.047, -0.983],
-	stre: [-0.039, 1.018, 0.001, -0.013],
-	tp: [0.095, -2.109, -0.009, 1.092],
+	diq: [0.0026, -0.058, -0.0, 0.0006],
+	dnk: [0.0021, -0.0556, -0.0004, 0.0115],
+	drb: [0.0031, -0.0764, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.0146, 0.392, 0.0025, -0.0572],
+	fg: [0.0012, -0.0254, -0.0004, 0.0275],
+	ft: [0.002, -0.0463, -0.0011, 0.0523],
+	ins: [0.0008, -0.029, 0.0005, 0.016],
+	jmp: [-0.0058, 0.1244, 0.0068, -0.1686],
+	oiq: [-0.0004, 0.0183, -0.0001, 0.0018],
+	pss: [0.0023, -0.0551, -0.0, 0.0002],
+	reb: [0.0023, -0.0617, -0.0, 0.0002],
+	spd: [-0.0022, 0.043, 0.0015, -0.0368],
+	stre: [-0.0001, -0.0, 0.0, 0.0],
+	tp: [0.0028, -0.0686, -0.0017, 0.0524],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	const base_coef = [-0.174, 4.475, -0.001, 3.455];
+	const base_coef = [-0.0047, 0.1225, 0.0006, 0.0421];
 
 	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
 	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
-	val += helpers.bound(
-		random.realGauss(0, 0.05 + Math.max(0, std_base)),
-		-5,
-		15,
+	const std_noise = helpers.bound(
+		random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, std_base)),
+		-0.05,
+		0.25,
 	);
+	val += std_noise;
 
-	// Modulate by coaching. g.get("numActiveTeams") doesn't exist when upgrading DB, but that doesn't matter
 	if (g.hasOwnProperty("numActiveTeams")) {
 		const numActiveTeams = g.get("numActiveTeams");
 		if (numActiveTeams > 1) {
@@ -47,7 +47,6 @@ const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 			}
 		}
 	}
-
 	return val;
 };
 
@@ -78,12 +77,17 @@ const developSeason = (
 		const ageStd =
 			ratingsFormulas[key][2] * age_bounds + ratingsFormulas[key][3];
 
+		const ageChange =
+			ageModifier +
+			helpers.bound(
+				random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)),
+				-0.05,
+				0.25,
+			);
 		ratings[key] = limitRating(
-			ratings[key] +
-				baseChange +
-				ageModifier +
-				helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, 0.05 + Math.max(0, ageStd)), -5, 5),
+			Math.exp(Math.log(Math.max(0.1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange),
 		);
+		//console.log(baseChange,ageChange);
 	}
 };
 
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index a614e9ef4f..2c60e19df7 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -84,9 +84,9 @@ const genRatings = (
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.64 * hgt - 79.1 + random.realGauss(0, 10);
-	const pca2 = 0.42 * hgt - 20.12 + random.realGauss(0, 10);
-	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 13.78 + random.realGauss(0, 10);
+	const pca1 = 1.64 * hgt - 79.1 + random.realGauss(0, 14.3);
+	const pca2 = 0.42 * hgt - 20.12 + random.realGauss(0, 16.2);
+	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 13.78 + random.realGauss(0, 9.2);
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:

From d61023bd8208afd51f3ae657214e5d2ff9a064e8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2021 19:16:01 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 3/7] rebalanced so the top end works okay

---
 .../core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts   |  40 ++++---
 .../core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts      | 101 +++++-------------
 2 files changed, 47 insertions(+), 94 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index 2946337f8a..fa02946516 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -7,33 +7,33 @@ import type {
 
 // (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
 const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
-	diq: [0.0026, -0.058, -0.0, 0.0006],
-	dnk: [0.0021, -0.0556, -0.0004, 0.0115],
-	drb: [0.0031, -0.0764, 0.0, 0.0],
-	endu: [-0.0146, 0.392, 0.0025, -0.0572],
-	fg: [0.0012, -0.0254, -0.0004, 0.0275],
-	ft: [0.002, -0.0463, -0.0011, 0.0523],
-	ins: [0.0008, -0.029, 0.0005, 0.016],
-	jmp: [-0.0058, 0.1244, 0.0068, -0.1686],
-	oiq: [-0.0004, 0.0183, -0.0001, 0.0018],
-	pss: [0.0023, -0.0551, -0.0, 0.0002],
-	reb: [0.0023, -0.0617, -0.0, 0.0002],
-	spd: [-0.0022, 0.043, 0.0015, -0.0368],
-	stre: [-0.0001, -0.0, 0.0, 0.0],
-	tp: [0.0028, -0.0686, -0.0017, 0.0524],
+	diq: [0.0023, -0.0524, -0.0, 0.0003],
+	dnk: [0.0018, -0.0465, -0.0003, 0.0091],
+	drb: [0.0026, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.012, 0.3214, 0.0016, -0.0357],
+	fg: [0.0011, -0.0236, -0.0004, 0.0191],
+	ft: [0.0018, -0.0396, -0.0007, 0.0285],
+	ins: [0.0005, -0.0197, 0.0003, 0.0108],
+	jmp: [-0.0051, 0.1082, 0.0041, -0.102],
+	oiq: [-0.0003, 0.0137, -0.0, 0.0014],
+	pss: [0.0019, -0.046, -0.0, 0.0001],
+	reb: [0.0019, -0.0506, -0.0, 0.0001],
+	spd: [-0.002, 0.0402, 0.001, -0.0252],
+	stre: [-0.0001, -0.0001, 0.0, 0.0],
+	tp: [0.0024, -0.0596, -0.0012, 0.0385],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	const base_coef = [-0.0047, 0.1225, 0.0006, 0.0421];
+	const base_coef = [-0.0039, 0.1018, 0.0003, 0.0266];
 
 	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
 	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
 	const std_noise = helpers.bound(
 		random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, std_base)),
 		-0.05,
-		0.25,
+		0.35,
 	);
 	val += std_noise;
 
@@ -79,13 +79,9 @@ const developSeason = (
 
 		const ageChange =
 			ageModifier +
-			helpers.bound(
-				random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)),
-				-0.05,
-				0.25,
-			);
+			helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)), -0.2, 0.3);
 		ratings[key] = limitRating(
-			Math.exp(Math.log(Math.max(0.1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange),
+			Math.exp(Math.log(Math.max(1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange),
 		);
 		//console.log(baseChange,ageChange);
 	}
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index 2c60e19df7..a44281d83b 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -2,46 +2,7 @@ import genFuzz from "./genFuzz";
 import heightToRating from "./heightToRating";
 import limitRating from "./limitRating";
 import { helpers, random } from "../../util";
-import type {
-	PlayerRatings,
-	RatingKey,
-} from "../../../common/types.basketball";
-
-const typeFactors: Record<
-	"point" | "wing" | "big",
-	Partial<Record<RatingKey, number>>
-> = {
-	point: {
-		jmp: 1.65,
-		spd: 1.65,
-		drb: 1.5,
-		pss: 1.5,
-		ft: 1.4,
-		fg: 1.4,
-		tp: 1.4,
-		oiq: 1.2,
-		endu: 1.4,
-	},
-	wing: {
-		drb: 1.2,
-		dnk: 1.5,
-		jmp: 1.4,
-		spd: 1.4,
-		ft: 1.2,
-		fg: 1.2,
-		tp: 1.2,
-	},
-	big: {
-		stre: 1.2,
-		ins: 1.6,
-		dnk: 1.5,
-		reb: 1.4,
-		ft: 0.8,
-		fg: 0.8,
-		tp: 0.8,
-		diq: 1.2,
-	},
-};
+import type { PlayerRatings } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 
 /**
  * Generate initial ratings for a newly-created player.
@@ -68,106 +29,102 @@ const genRatings = (
 
 	const pca_comp = [
 		[
-			-0.03352406, 0.12346389, -0.35794756, -0.15434998, -0.3113007, -0.2962055,
-			0.34777623, 0.12785922, -0.3111465, -0.11403359, -0.36446682, 0.13955043,
-			-0.30497047, 0.06144027, -0.38837135,
+			-0.04097378, 0.10708854, -0.37189642, -0.16707005, -0.31409436,
+			-0.29164582, 0.33714843, 0.10838294, -0.31849462, -0.12487201, -0.3799997,
+			0.12642711, -0.30714244, 0.03870837, -0.37182716,
 		],
 		[
-			0.28366816, 0.30712998, 0.17298037, 0.23822004, 0.03453123, -0.02717308,
-			0.16869372, 0.47707278, 0.09103202, 0.21353549, 0.23247957, 0.39476818,
-			0.05918039, 0.45708638, -0.06589692,
+			0.26861978, 0.3138044, 0.15214671, 0.24289334, 0.03620905, -0.02747153,
+			0.19318229, 0.47557852, 0.06119868, 0.21228091, 0.20542903, 0.40515214,
+			0.03863032, 0.4684178, -0.07482827,
 		],
 		[
-			-0.17455344, 0.3758997, -0.30602956, 0.0244445, 0.30912668, 0.26491034,
-			0.26718402, 0.00262062, 0.2510174, 0.03160773, -0.51004165, -0.13338444,
-			0.1938457, 0.17691812, 0.29330686,
+			-0.18922555, 0.35164002, -0.30484948, 0.02890456, 0.30394453, 0.25071532,
+			0.28024483, -0.00872483, 0.26769468, 0.02539012, -0.5109063, -0.14047495,
+			0.2038116, 0.17138019, 0.29823953,
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.64 * hgt - 79.1 + random.realGauss(0, 14.3);
-	const pca2 = 0.42 * hgt - 20.12 + random.realGauss(0, 16.2);
-	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 13.78 + random.realGauss(0, 9.2);
+	const pca1 = 1.61 * hgt - 77.92 + random.realGauss(0, 18.0);
+	const pca2 = 0.51 * hgt - 24.93 + random.realGauss(0, 20.0);
+	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 14.16 + random.realGauss(0, 10.0);
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:
-			41.5 +
+			41.8 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][0] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][0] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][0],
 		dnk:
-			46.8 +
+			47.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][1] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][1] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][1],
 		drb:
-			59.2 +
+			49.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][2] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
 		endu:
-			35.3 +
+			34.3 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
 		fg:
-			42.9 +
+			43.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][4] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
 		ft:
-			43.0 +
+			43.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
-		hgt:
-			48.1 +
-			pca1 * pca_comp[0][6] +
-			pca2 * pca_comp[1][6] +
-			pca3 * pca_comp[2][6],
+		hgt: hgt,
 		ins:
-			40.8 +
+			41.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][7] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][7] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][7],
 		jmp:
-			50.7 +
+			51.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][8] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
 		oiq:
-			40.8 +
+			40.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
 		pss:
-			46.1 +
+			46.4 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][10] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][10] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][10],
 		reb:
-			48.3 +
+			48.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][11] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][11] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][11],
 		spd:
-			51.2 +
+			51.8 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][12] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][12] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][12],
 		stre:
-			46.9 +
+			47.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][13] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][13] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][13],
 		tp:
-			44.3 +
+			44.2 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][14] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][14] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][14],
 	};
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.5, 1.2));
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.78, 1.2));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {

From 6241422b7546c85414a2010c7985a6652c0c6b50 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2021 20:08:05 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 4/7] ovr matching

---
 src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts | 1 +
 src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts    | 8 ++++----
 2 files changed, 5 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index fa02946516..5e644574f1 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -47,6 +47,7 @@ const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 			}
 		}
 	}
+
 	return val;
 };
 
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index a44281d83b..5560f92a3a 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -45,9 +45,9 @@ const genRatings = (
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.61 * hgt - 77.92 + random.realGauss(0, 18.0);
-	const pca2 = 0.51 * hgt - 24.93 + random.realGauss(0, 20.0);
-	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 14.16 + random.realGauss(0, 10.0);
+	const pca1 = 1.61 * hgt - 77.92 + random.realGauss(0, 15.4);
+	const pca2 = 0.51 * hgt - 24.93 + random.realGauss(0, 17.7);
+	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 14.16 + random.realGauss(0, 9.3);
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ const genRatings = (
 	};
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.78, 1.2));
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.77, 1.23));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {

From 8eb0d93c0715272e5e8ed5105c41b5f8442440ed Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2022 22:32:53 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 5/7] tweaks

---
 .../core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts   | 30 +++++------
 .../core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts      | 54 +++++++++----------
 src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts      | 32 +++++------
 3 files changed, 58 insertions(+), 58 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index 5e644574f1..9cf792ea8e 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -7,26 +7,26 @@ import type {
 
 // (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
 const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
-	diq: [0.0023, -0.0524, -0.0, 0.0003],
-	dnk: [0.0018, -0.0465, -0.0003, 0.0091],
-	drb: [0.0026, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0],
-	endu: [-0.012, 0.3214, 0.0016, -0.0357],
-	fg: [0.0011, -0.0236, -0.0004, 0.0191],
-	ft: [0.0018, -0.0396, -0.0007, 0.0285],
-	ins: [0.0005, -0.0197, 0.0003, 0.0108],
-	jmp: [-0.0051, 0.1082, 0.0041, -0.102],
-	oiq: [-0.0003, 0.0137, -0.0, 0.0014],
-	pss: [0.0019, -0.046, -0.0, 0.0001],
-	reb: [0.0019, -0.0506, -0.0, 0.0001],
-	spd: [-0.002, 0.0402, 0.001, -0.0252],
-	stre: [-0.0001, -0.0001, 0.0, 0.0],
-	tp: [0.0024, -0.0596, -0.0012, 0.0385],
+	diq: [0.0025, -0.056, -0.0, 0.0004],
+	dnk: [0.002, -0.0518, -0.0003, 0.0104],
+	drb: [0.0029, -0.0716, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.0135, 0.3619, 0.002, -0.0458],
+	fg: [0.0012, -0.0256, -0.0004, 0.0233],
+	ft: [0.0019, -0.0434, -0.0009, 0.039],
+	ins: [0.0007, -0.0246, 0.0004, 0.0132],
+	jmp: [-0.0055, 0.1173, 0.0053, -0.1313],
+	oiq: [-0.0003, 0.0163, -0.0001, 0.0016],
+	pss: [0.0021, -0.0512, -0.0, 0.0001],
+	reb: [0.0022, -0.0569, -0.0, 0.0002],
+	spd: [-0.0021, 0.0422, 0.0012, -0.0301],
+	stre: [-0.0001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0],
+	tp: [0.0026, -0.0652, -0.0015, 0.0464],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	const base_coef = [-0.0039, 0.1018, 0.0003, 0.0266];
+	const base_coef = [-0.0044, 0.1138, 0.0004, 0.0341];
 
 	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
 	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index 5560f92a3a..73706742fc 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -29,102 +29,102 @@ const genRatings = (
 
 	const pca_comp = [
 		[
-			-0.04097378, 0.10708854, -0.37189642, -0.16707005, -0.31409436,
-			-0.29164582, 0.33714843, 0.10838294, -0.31849462, -0.12487201, -0.3799997,
-			0.12642711, -0.30714244, 0.03870837, -0.37182716,
+			-0.03143667, 0.13151142, -0.35923427, -0.14588372, -0.30707702,
+			-0.2923038, 0.35577568, 0.13378376, -0.30905554, -0.11226255, -0.36662078,
+			0.14404827, -0.3010302, 0.06513013, -0.38604742,
 		],
 		[
-			0.26861978, 0.3138044, 0.15214671, 0.24289334, 0.03620905, -0.02747153,
-			0.19318229, 0.47557852, 0.06119868, 0.21228091, 0.20542903, 0.40515214,
-			0.03863032, 0.4684178, -0.07482827,
+			0.28741613, 0.2948169, 0.18162839, 0.22216108, 0.04010548, -0.02320695,
+			0.16749835, 0.4756356, 0.08802667, 0.21357235, 0.24305432, 0.40340626,
+			0.05871636, 0.45862335, -0.05236033,
 		],
 		[
-			-0.18922555, 0.35164002, -0.30484948, 0.02890456, 0.30394453, 0.25071532,
-			0.28024483, -0.00872483, 0.26769468, 0.02539012, -0.5109063, -0.14047495,
-			0.2038116, 0.17138019, 0.29823953,
+			0.17881319, -0.36455768, 0.29882076, -0.03616037, -0.3152401, -0.26787323,
+			-0.27231044, -0.01128095, -0.2439317, -0.03754768, 0.50334144, 0.13699001,
+			-0.19139023, -0.1869137, -0.30742782,
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.61 * hgt - 77.92 + random.realGauss(0, 15.4);
-	const pca2 = 0.51 * hgt - 24.93 + random.realGauss(0, 17.7);
-	const pca3 = 0.29 * hgt - 14.16 + random.realGauss(0, 9.3);
+	const pca1 = 1.62 * hgt - 78.12 + random.realGauss(0, 13.3);
+	const pca2 = 0.4 * hgt - 19.41 + random.realGauss(0, 14.9);
+	const pca3 = -0.28 * hgt + 13.35 + random.realGauss(0, 9.0);
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:
-			41.8 +
+			41.2 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][0] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][0] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][0],
 		dnk:
-			47.6 +
+			46.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][1] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][1] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][1],
 		drb:
-			49.5 +
+			49.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][2] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
 		endu:
-			34.3 +
+			32.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
 		fg:
-			43.1 +
+			42.3 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][4] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
 		ft:
-			43.1 +
+			42.4 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
 		hgt: hgt,
 		ins:
-			41.5 +
+			40.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][7] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][7] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][7],
 		jmp:
-			51.6 +
+			50.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][8] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
 		oiq:
-			40.7 +
+			39.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
 		pss:
-			46.4 +
+			45.8 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][10] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][10] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][10],
 		reb:
-			48.7 +
+			48.0 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][11] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][11] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][11],
 		spd:
-			51.8 +
+			50.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][12] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][12] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][12],
 		stre:
-			47.6 +
+			46.3 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][13] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][13] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][13],
 		tp:
-			44.2 +
+			44.0 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][14] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][14] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][14],
 	};
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.77, 1.23));
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.8, 1.2));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
index 4af809df14..e39dd8125d 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/ovr.basketball.ts
@@ -10,22 +10,22 @@ import type { PlayerRatings } from "../../../common/types.basketball";
 const ovr = (ratings: PlayerRatings): number => {
 	// See analysis/player-ovr-basketball
 	const r =
-		0.159 * (ratings.hgt - 47.5) +
-		0.0777 * (ratings.stre - 50.2) +
-		0.123 * (ratings.spd - 50.8) +
-		0.051 * (ratings.jmp - 48.7) +
-		0.0632 * (ratings.endu - 39.9) +
-		0.0126 * (ratings.ins - 42.4) +
-		0.0286 * (ratings.dnk - 49.5) +
-		0.0202 * (ratings.ft - 47.0) +
-		0.0726 * (ratings.tp - 47.1) +
-		0.133 * (ratings.oiq - 46.8) +
-		0.159 * (ratings.diq - 46.7) +
-		0.059 * (ratings.drb - 54.8) +
-		0.062 * (ratings.pss - 51.3) +
-		0.01 * (ratings.fg - 47.0) +
-		0.01 * (ratings.reb - 51.4) +
-		48.5;
+		0.0935 * ratings.diq +
+		0.042 * ratings.dnk +
+		0.0969 * ratings.drb +
+		0.00725 * ratings.endu +
+		-0.00948 * ratings.fg +
+		0.0488 * ratings.ft +
+		0.225 * ratings.hgt +
+		-0.0143 * ratings.ins +
+		0.0502 * ratings.jmp +
+		0.0974 * ratings.oiq +
+		0.0656 * ratings.pss +
+		0.0533 * ratings.reb +
+		0.156 * ratings.spd +
+		0.0962 * ratings.stre +
+		0.105 * ratings.tp +
+		-6.4;
 
 	// Fudge factor to keep ovr ratings the same as they used to be (back before 2018 ratings rescaling)
 	// +8 at 68

From 7df4fc6af796dc28e266c9e44e34e6e44cc02ab5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 13 Jan 2022 21:06:00 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 6/7] sqrt-based progs

---
 .../core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts     |  2 +-
 .../core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts   | 38 ++++++-------
 .../core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts      | 54 +++++++++----------
 3 files changed, 47 insertions(+), 47 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts b/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
index 291426fc69..f1a552f4f6 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/draft/genPlayersWithoutSaving.ts
@@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ const genPlayersWithoutSaving = async (
 	}
 
 	// Small chance of making top 4 players (in 70 player draft) special - on average, one per draft class
-	if (existingPlayers.length === 0) {
+	if (!isSport("basketball") && existingPlayers.length === 0) {
 		const numSpecialPlayerChances = Math.round((4 / 70) * numPlayers);
 
 		for (let i = 0; i < numSpecialPlayerChances; i++) {
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
index 9cf792ea8e..e446ba6bc0 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/developSeason.basketball.ts
@@ -7,33 +7,33 @@ import type {
 
 // (age coefficient, age offset) for mean, than std. dev.
 const ratingsFormulas: Record<Exclude<RatingKey, "hgt">, Array<number>> = {
-	diq: [0.0025, -0.056, -0.0, 0.0004],
-	dnk: [0.002, -0.0518, -0.0003, 0.0104],
-	drb: [0.0029, -0.0716, 0.0, 0.0],
-	endu: [-0.0135, 0.3619, 0.002, -0.0458],
-	fg: [0.0012, -0.0256, -0.0004, 0.0233],
-	ft: [0.0019, -0.0434, -0.0009, 0.039],
-	ins: [0.0007, -0.0246, 0.0004, 0.0132],
-	jmp: [-0.0055, 0.1173, 0.0053, -0.1313],
-	oiq: [-0.0003, 0.0163, -0.0001, 0.0016],
-	pss: [0.0021, -0.0512, -0.0, 0.0001],
-	reb: [0.0022, -0.0569, -0.0, 0.0002],
-	spd: [-0.0021, 0.0422, 0.0012, -0.0301],
-	stre: [-0.0001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0],
-	tp: [0.0026, -0.0652, -0.0015, 0.0464],
+	diq: [0.008, -0.18, -0.0, 0.0012],
+	dnk: [0.006, -0.1601, -0.0009, 0.0317],
+	drb: [0.0087, -0.2156, 0.0, 0.0],
+	endu: [-0.0398, 1.0722, 0.0029, -0.0604],
+	fg: [0.0024, -0.0443, -0.0008, 0.054],
+	ft: [0.0052, -0.1124, -0.0012, 0.0704],
+	ins: [0.0027, -0.0933, -0.0006, 0.083],
+	jmp: [-0.0146, 0.2996, 0.0077, -0.1821],
+	oiq: [-0.0016, 0.0676, -0.0, 0.0012],
+	pss: [0.0062, -0.1502, -0.0, 0.0001],
+	reb: [0.0067, -0.1769, -0.0, 0.0006],
+	spd: [-0.0079, 0.1606, 0.0033, -0.0793],
+	stre: [-0.0019, 0.0375, 0.0, 0.0],
+	tp: [0.0079, -0.1909, -0.0025, 0.1013],
 };
 
 const calcBaseChange = (age: number, coachingRank: number): number => {
 	let val: number;
 
-	const base_coef = [-0.0044, 0.1138, 0.0004, 0.0341];
+	const base_coef = [-0.0148, 0.3846, -0.0001, 0.1659];
 
 	val = base_coef[0] * age + base_coef[1];
 	const std_base = base_coef[2] * age + base_coef[3];
 	const std_noise = helpers.bound(
 		random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, std_base)),
-		-0.05,
-		0.35,
+		-0.1,
+		0.4,
 	);
 	val += std_noise;
 
@@ -80,9 +80,9 @@ const developSeason = (
 
 		const ageChange =
 			ageModifier +
-			helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)), -0.2, 0.3);
+			helpers.bound(random.realGauss(0, Math.max(0.00001, ageStd)), -0.4, 0.5);
 		ratings[key] = limitRating(
-			Math.exp(Math.log(Math.max(1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange),
+			(Math.sqrt(Math.max(1, ratings[key])) + baseChange + ageChange) ** 2,
 		);
 		//console.log(baseChange,ageChange);
 	}
diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index 73706742fc..0fb6ddaf35 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -29,102 +29,102 @@ const genRatings = (
 
 	const pca_comp = [
 		[
-			-0.03143667, 0.13151142, -0.35923427, -0.14588372, -0.30707702,
-			-0.2923038, 0.35577568, 0.13378376, -0.30905554, -0.11226255, -0.36662078,
-			0.14404827, -0.3010302, 0.06513013, -0.38604742,
+			0.01143473, 0.18681705, -0.302455, -0.11453141, -0.3093686, -0.3117734,
+			0.39198348, 0.17170778, -0.33111817, -0.06919178, -0.31790763, 0.1837728,
+			-0.29564103, 0.12445679, -0.3635497,
 		],
 		[
-			0.28741613, 0.2948169, 0.18162839, 0.22216108, 0.04010548, -0.02320695,
-			0.16749835, 0.4756356, 0.08802667, 0.21357235, 0.24305432, 0.40340626,
-			0.05871636, 0.45862335, -0.05236033,
+			0.26099068, 0.32022768, 0.22354284, 0.27015418, 0.08270443, 0.06164626,
+			0.00622841, 0.517066, 0.07112398, 0.2629814, 0.2984516, 0.3287413,
+			0.06890596, 0.3749461, -0.10794741,
 		],
 		[
-			0.17881319, -0.36455768, 0.29882076, -0.03616037, -0.3152401, -0.26787323,
-			-0.27231044, -0.01128095, -0.2439317, -0.03754768, 0.50334144, 0.13699001,
-			-0.19139023, -0.1869137, -0.30742782,
+			-0.15255773, 0.38756528, -0.26229388, 0.05008439, 0.28697568, 0.2588261,
+			0.33136192, 0.01230466, 0.25432152, 0.04441171, -0.4698831, -0.15000868,
+			0.22909337, 0.23237176, 0.28194028,
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.62 * hgt - 78.12 + random.realGauss(0, 13.3);
-	const pca2 = 0.4 * hgt - 19.41 + random.realGauss(0, 14.9);
-	const pca3 = -0.28 * hgt + 13.35 + random.realGauss(0, 9.0);
+	const pca1 = 1.72 * hgt - 83.44 + random.realGauss(0, 0.23) - 0.513;
+	const pca2 = 0.01 * hgt - 0.47 + random.realGauss(0, 23.1) - 14.78;
+	const pca3 = 0.34 * hgt - 16.39 + random.realGauss(0, 0.975) + 2.4;
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:
-			41.2 +
+			42.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][0] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][0] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][0],
 		dnk:
-			46.6 +
+			46.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][1] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][1] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][1],
 		drb:
-			49.1 +
+			50.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][2] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
 		endu:
-			32.1 +
+			32.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
 		fg:
-			42.3 +
+			42.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][4] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
 		ft:
-			42.4 +
+			42.5 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
 		hgt: hgt,
 		ins:
-			40.6 +
+			41.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][7] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][7] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][7],
 		jmp:
-			50.1 +
+			51.0 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][8] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
 		oiq:
-			39.7 +
+			40.1 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
 		pss:
-			45.8 +
+			47.3 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][10] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][10] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][10],
 		reb:
-			48.0 +
+			48.7 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][11] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][11] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][11],
 		spd:
-			50.7 +
+			51.4 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][12] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][12] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][12],
 		stre:
-			46.3 +
+			47.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][13] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][13] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][13],
 		tp:
-			44.0 +
+			44.9 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][14] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][14] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][14],
 	};
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.8, 1.2));
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.86, 1.19));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {

From ef005e59cc6e5152d1620fbad8399b090d7f6471 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: nicidob <nicholasidobson@gmail.com>
Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2022 21:37:06 -0500
Subject: [PATCH 7/7] tweak generation with better settings

---
 .../core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts      | 32 +++++++++----------
 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 16 deletions(-)

diff --git a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
index 0fb6ddaf35..908a232761 100644
--- a/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
+++ b/src/worker/core/player/genRatings.basketball.ts
@@ -29,25 +29,25 @@ const genRatings = (
 
 	const pca_comp = [
 		[
-			0.01143473, 0.18681705, -0.302455, -0.11453141, -0.3093686, -0.3117734,
-			0.39198348, 0.17170778, -0.33111817, -0.06919178, -0.31790763, 0.1837728,
-			-0.29564103, 0.12445679, -0.3635497,
+			0.01144491, 0.18678923, -0.30245945, -0.11454368, -0.30940279,
+			-0.31179763, 0.39192477, 0.17167505, -0.33114137, -0.06918906,
+			-0.31791678, 0.18375956, -0.29565832, 0.12444836, -0.36355192,
 		],
 		[
-			0.26099068, 0.32022768, 0.22354284, 0.27015418, 0.08270443, 0.06164626,
-			0.00622841, 0.517066, 0.07112398, 0.2629814, 0.2984516, 0.3287413,
-			0.06890596, 0.3749461, -0.10794741,
+			0.26091959, 0.32038081, 0.22341533, 0.27030209, 0.08278275, 0.06169217,
+			0.00644845, 0.5170028, 0.07126779, 0.26298184, 0.29825086, 0.32866972,
+			0.06902588, 0.37508656, -0.1078734,
 		],
 		[
-			-0.15255773, 0.38756528, -0.26229388, 0.05008439, 0.28697568, 0.2588261,
-			0.33136192, 0.01230466, 0.25432152, 0.04441171, -0.4698831, -0.15000868,
-			0.22909337, 0.23237176, 0.28194028,
+			-0.1527201, 0.38744556, -0.26238251, 0.04986639, 0.28690744, 0.25874772,
+			0.33139227, 0.01208661, 0.25434695, 0.0442386, -0.46999709, -0.15012807,
+			0.22910478, 0.23225618, 0.2819238,
 		],
 	];
 
-	const pca1 = 1.72 * hgt - 83.44 + random.realGauss(0, 0.23) - 0.513;
-	const pca2 = 0.01 * hgt - 0.47 + random.realGauss(0, 23.1) - 14.78;
-	const pca3 = 0.34 * hgt - 16.39 + random.realGauss(0, 0.975) + 2.4;
+	const pca1 = 1.72 * hgt - 83.45 + random.realGauss(0, 0.015) - 0.8;
+	const pca2 = 0.01 * hgt - 0.48 + random.realGauss(0, 22.3) - 11.1;
+	const pca3 = 0.34 * hgt - 16.39 + random.realGauss(0, 0.19) + 1.8;
 
 	const rawRatings = {
 		diq:
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@ const genRatings = (
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][2] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][2],
 		endu:
-			32.5 +
+			32.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][3] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][3] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][3],
@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ const genRatings = (
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][4] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][4],
 		ft:
-			42.5 +
+			42.6 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][5] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][5] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][5],
@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ const genRatings = (
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][8] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][8],
 		oiq:
-			40.1 +
+			40.2 +
 			pca1 * pca_comp[0][9] +
 			pca2 * pca_comp[1][9] +
 			pca3 * pca_comp[2][9],
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ const genRatings = (
 	};
 
 	for (const key of helpers.keys(rawRatings)) {
-		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.86, 1.19));
+		rawRatings[key] = limitRating(rawRatings[key] * random.uniform(0.81, 1.22));
 	}
 
 	const ratings = {