Add UK Capital Gains Tax post (#2196)

* Capital-Gains-Tax-post

* fixing style

src/posts/articles/cgt-autumn-budget.md

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+The Autumn Budget 2024 includes substantial reforms to Capital Gains Tax (CGT), with Chancellor Rachel Reeves announcing rate increases across all tax bands. The changes raise the rates from 10% and 20% to 18% and 24%, respectively.
+
+When accounting for behavioural responses, we project that these changes will raise £6.4 billion from 2025 to 2029\. In 2025 without behavioural responses, they will affect 1.2% of the population and reduce the Gini index of income inequality by 0.4%.
+
+## Budgetary impacts
+
+We project the CGT reforms will raise £6.4 billion from 2025 to 2029\.
+
+| Fiscal Year   | 2024-25 | 2025-26                                                                                                                        | 2026-27                                                                                                                        | 2027-28                                                                                                                        | 2028-29                                                                                                                        | 2029-30                                                                                                                        | Total |
+| :------------ | :------ | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :---- |
+| Revenue (£bn) | 0.0     | [1.0](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) | [1.2](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2026&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2027&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2028&baseline=1) | [1.4](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69739&region=uk&timePeriod=2029&baseline=1) | 6.4   |
+
+These estimates are 29% less than HMT and 26% less than the OBR. These variations may stem from different assumptions about behavioural responses. In our model, we assume individuals will adjust their capital gains realisations with an elasticity of \-0.7 with respect to the marginal tax rate; neither HMT nor OBR specify their assumptions on this front.
+
+| Source       | 2024-25 | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | 2028-29 | 2029-30 | Total |
+| ------------ | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ------- | ----- |
+| PolicyEngine | 0.0     | 1.0     | 1.2     | 1.4     | 1.4     | 1.4     | 6.4   |
+| HM Treasury  | 0.1     | 1.4     | 1.4     | 1.4     | 2.2     | 2.5     | 9.0   |
+| OBR          | 0.1     | 1.4     | 1.3     | 1.3     | 2.1     | 2.4     | 8.6   |
+
+Assuming [no behavioural change](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.policyBreakdown&reform=69732&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1), we project the change to generate £22.2 billion from 2025 to 2029\. While the OBR also provides estimates it describes as static, those account for changes in realisation behaviour, making them incomparable to our static results.
+
+## Distributional impact
+
+The CGT reforms affect 1.2% of the population, with impacts limited to the highest income decile. Within the top 10%, 5% see income losses above 5%, another 5% face losses under 5%, while 90% experience no change. The policy has no impact on income levels across the bottom nine deciles.
+
+Our [distributional analysis](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.inequalityImpact&reform=69732&region=uk&timePeriod=2025&baseline=1) shows no change in poverty measures, while the Gini index falls by 0.4%. Across most of the income distribution (the bottom 90% of households), incomes remain unchanged.
+
+![](/images/posts/cgt-autumn-budget-pic/cgt-win-loser.png)
+
+Read more of PolicyEngine’s Autumn Budget 2024 coverage:
+
+- [Employer National Insurance reforms](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/autumn-budget-24-employer-ni)
+- [Private school VAT changes](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/vat-school-comparison)
+- [Fuel Duty freeze](https://policyengine.org/uk/research/autumn-budget-24-fuel-duty)

src/posts/posts.json

@@ -854,6 +854,15 @@
     "filename": "Benefit-uprating-25.md",
     "image": "benefit-uprating-post-pic.jpg"
   },
+  {
+    "title": "Capital Gains Tax reforms in the Autumn Budget 2024",
+    "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the UK's 2024 Capital Gains Tax reforms will raise £6.4 billion between 2025-2029.",
+    "date": "2024-11-06 15:00:00",
+    "tags": ["uk", "tax", "featured"],
+    "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"],
+    "filename": "cgt-autumn-budget.md",
+    "image": "cgt-autumn-budget.jpg"
+  },
   {
     "title": "Kamala Harris’s Earned Income Tax Credit Expansion Proposal",
     "description": "PolicyEngine projects that restoring the American Rescue Plan policy would cost $144 billion (static) or $201 billion (dynamic) over a decade, while lowering poverty by 1.6% in 2025.",